Problem is, can you guarantee that the entire US Military would back the US Government in a civil war? Depending on how things go there is no guarantee at all that the entire US Military would support the government. Even if they do can you guarantee that there arent enough desertions to seriously hurt their fighting capabilities?
There also are just the pure numbers involved. So lets do the math to show why things might not go the governments way.
There are an estimated 400 Million guns in the US right now, more than our population which stands at a rounded out 320 Million. Now we know that not every american owns a gun and most recent estimated put the number of people who have a gun at somewhere between 30 and 40%
Which means that anywhere between 96 and 128 Million people who own at least 1 gun.
The US military currently stands at 1.1 Million active members with another 800K in reserve, meaning the maximum you could call up at any time is a rounded out 2 Million.
There are 500,000 National Guardsmen registered bringing the total possible callup to 2.5 Million.
Adding Cops to that there are another 100k officers you can add bringing the total to 2.6 Million.
And thats it.
Theres no other force to draw from except for militias that form to fight on the pro-government side. Those numbers are likely to be smaller than what rises to fight the government simply because of the political forces that would lead to an armed uprising.
So as it stands here its a force of 2.5 Million against anywhere between 96-128 Million. Yes they have exponential killing force but at a point that does no matter anymore because the numbers simply become to much to deal with. The saying for why you dont go to war with China applies in this instance. You would run out of bullets before they run out of people.
I wouldnt expect the full 96-128 Million to rise up but even if a small percentage of them do then its enough to overwhelm our forces based on sheer numbers alone.
Even if as few as 10% of these people decide to rise up thats a force of anywhere between 9.6 Million and 12.8 Million. Which is still far greater than the total number of potential military call ups.
Geography also comes into play where pockets of resistance could start and that creates problems fighting them because there is no defined "line" like you see in traditional wars. It would be like Iraq where its urban warfare with huge pockets of resistance where the military is simply outnumbered.
Also lets look at history. In the Civil War one of the biggest reasons that the North won was because of a far superior infrastructure and communication systems. That advantage doesnt exist today. Many of the states that would lead a rebellion like Texas have a vast infrastructure system and communication as good as anywhere on Earth. The same can be said if its California rising against a tyranny under Trump.
Like I said, it looks like the Military has superiority but at a point they dont.
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